Chaotic March weather has a surprising secret

Chaotic March weather has a surprising secret

As its final days wind down, weather inMarch 2026 has been one for the record books. It showed why old sayings endure and rivaled college basketball for "March Madness."

USA TODAY

True to the proverb,the month came "in like a lion,"and later echoed Shakespeare's warning to "beware the ides of March."

Relentless,record-breaking heat persisted in the West. Powerful storms and bouts of polar air blew through the Central and Eastern U.S., bringing extreme swings in temperature within hours.Hawaii endured flooding rains in a string of kona lows.

It may come as a surprise, but these weather systems also illustrate how connected we are by larger patterns that move around in our atmosphere.

<p style=A deep freeze across the South, a spreading heat wave in the West and a trail of high winds and downpours leaving the East are in the forecast on March 17 after a weekend of bizarre weather across the country.

On the heels of a major storm that delivered downpours, high winds and thunderstorms along the U.S. East Coast, the National Weather Service is predicting a "quieter" period of weather for many. See the storm's toll in photos.

Work crews clear downed trees on Holtville Road north of Wetumpka, Ala., after early morning storms on Monday March 16, 2026.

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> One World Trade Center is shrouded in fog and rain on March 16, 2026, in New York City. New York City, along with other parts of the Eastern U.S., is expected to get severe rain and wind as a storm system moves through the area. A car drives through a flooded lane on March 16, 2026 in Cabin John, Maryland. Severe storms brought high winds, thunderstorms and tornado warnings to parts of Washington, D.C. and Maryland on Monday. Stan Anderson, left, and Chris Gilson clear snow during a snowstorm on Sunday, March 15, 2026 in Kimberly, Wis. The Storm caused heavy snow, sleet and a blizzard warning. Holtville Road north of Wetumpka, Ala., is completely blocked by downed trees after early morning storms on Monday March 16, 2026. Snow blows across the road on Monday, March 16, 2026, in Ledgeview, Wis. A winter storm dumped about 2 feet of snow throughout the region between Saturday and Monday. Work crews clear downed trees on Holtville Road north of Wetumpka, Ala., after early morning storms on Monday March 16, 2026. A Kaukauna police officer assists a driver who slid off of Crooks Avenue during a snowstorm on Sunday, March 15, 2026 in the Kaukauna, Wis. The storm caused heavy snow, sleet and a blizzard warning. A skid steer clears drifting snow from a driveway Monday, March 16, 2026 just north of Fond du Lac, Wisconsin. The area received about eight inches of snow from the spring storm. Mailboxes covered with snow pictured on March 16, 2026, in Ledgeview, Wis. The winter storm dumped about 2 feet of snow throughout the region. A departure board displays multiple canceled and delayed flights at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport on March 16, 2026 in Arlington, Virginia. Parts of the Eastern U.S. are expected to get severe rain and wind as a storm system moves through the area. A car drives through heavy rain on Clara Barton Parkway on March 16, 2026 in Washington, DC. Severe storms brought high winds, thunderstorms and tornado warnings to parts of Washington, D.C. and Maryland on Monday. Work crews clear downed trees on Holtville Road north of Wetumpka, Ala., after early morning storms on Monday March 16, 2026.

Severe weather slams parts of the US. See the toll in photos

A deep freeze across the South, a spreading heat wave in the West and a trail of high winds and downpours leaving the East are in the forecast on March 17 after a weekend of bizarre weather across the country.

On the heels of amajor storm that delivered downpours, high winds and thunderstormsalong the U.S. East Coast, the National Weather Service is predicting a "quieter" period of weather for many. See the storm's toll in photos.Work crews clear downed trees on Holtville Road north of Wetumpka, Ala., after early morning storms on Monday March 16, 2026.

Though we tend to focus on what's going on in our own regions, "all the global patterns are connected through jet stream interactions and waves around the planet," said Daniel McEvoy, a research scientist with theWestern Regional Climate Center. "The patterns kind of feed off each other and drive weather across the continent."

Scientists don't yet fully understand all the triggers and feedbacks in the atmosphere, but they know things taking place in andover the Pacific Ocean influence weather across the U.S.That influence travels through the fluid environment in the atmosphere via planetary waves, said Jonathan Rutz, an atmospheric scientist at theCenter for Western Weather and Water Extremes.

Much of the activity is linked to the jet streams, currents of typically very fast-moving air in the mid-latitudes of both the Northern and Southern hemispheres, Rutz said. The jet streams exist because of temperature differences in the atmosphere between the poles and the equator that create the strong wind fields. Depending on conditions in the atmosphere, the jet stream can be fairly flat and fast moving or meander.

High pressure systems, usually related to clear and warm conditions, and low pressure systems, often linked to storms, kind of ride around the globe on the jet stream, McEvoy said. When they're blocked, they can linger over a region for days or weeks.

When the jet is streaming rapidly, planetary waves ripple along quickly in the atmosphere, bringing fronts with more frequent changes in the weather, Rutz said. When the jet slows, the number of planetary waves decreases, and the patterns become more amplified, with the jet stream developing big dips and peaks, he said. "That's when we see weather making the news."

A person wears a hat for shade under the morning sun while walking along The Strand in Redondo Beach, California, on March 20, 2026

In these cases, the same patterns persist over the same areas, Rutz said. That's how the atmosphere could set up therepeated kona lows over Hawaii, atmospheric rivers into the Pacific Northwest and dominate the West with hot, dry air and colder air pushing into the East.

"Sometimes it can be a little bit chicken and egg to determine exactly where that pattern started or what the trigger was," Rutz said. He describes the process as interconnected, simultaneous phenomena that develop "and then kind of lock into each other, almost like pieces of a puzzle."

Kona lows

The low pressuresystem that generated the rain over Hawaiiis a recurring winter phenomenon in the region. The pattern is commonly called a "kona low." Kona is the Hawaiian word for leeward and the activity often brings wind and rain to the leeward side of the islands.

Incredibleamounts of rain fell withthe lows in March, according to a National Weather Service summary using preliminary data.Rainfall amounts ranged as high as 52 incheson Oahu, 54.92 at Summit on Maui and 42.2 at Puu Waawaa on the island of Hawaii.

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Devastating flooding occurred in North Shorecommunities on Oahu, where homes were swept away and residents needed rescuing.

<p style=A flooded neighborhood in Waialua on the north shore of Oahu, Hawaii is seen during a crew flyover with a MH-65 Dolphin helicopter assigned to Coast Guard Air Station Barbers Point in Kapolei, on March 20, 2026. Officials in Hawaii on March 20 ordered some 4,000 people living near an aging dam on the island of Oahu to evacuate the area immediately, following severe rains that have battered the region. The century-old Wahiawa dam, located in the north of Hawaii's third largest island, which is home to the state capital Honolulu, "is at imminent risk of failure," the local emergency management agency warned.

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> A washed out road on Oahu, Hawaii is seen on March 21, 2026 filmed by US Army HH-60 Black Hawk crew from the 25th Combat Aviation Brigade. Officials in Hawaii on March 20 ordered some 4,000 people living near an aging dam on the island of Oahu to evacuate the area immediately, following severe rains that have battered the region. The century-old Wahiawa dam, located in the north of Hawaii's third largest island, which is home to the state capital Honolulu, An aerial view of a washed out road on Oahu, Hawaii is seen on March 21, 2026 filmed by US Army HH-60 Black Hawk crew from the 25th Combat Aviation Brigade. Officials in Hawaii on March 20 ordered some 4,000 people living near an aging dam on the island of Oahu to evacuate the area immediately, following severe rains that have battered the region. The century-old Wahiawa dam, located in the north of Hawaii's third largest island, which is home to the state capital Honolulu, A washed out road on Oahu, Hawaii is seen on March 21, 2026 filmed by US Army HH-60 Black Hawk crew from the 25th Combat Aviation Brigade. Officials in Hawaii on March 20 ordered some 4,000 people living near an aging dam on the island of Oahu to evacuate the area immediately, following severe rains that have battered the region. The century-old Wahiawa dam, located in the north of Hawaii's third largest island, which is home to the state capital Honolulu, A flooded neighborhood in Waialua on the north shore of Oahu, Hawaii is seen during a crew flyover with a MH-65 Dolphin helicopter assigned to Coast Guard Air Station Barbers Point in Kapolei, on March 20, 2026. Officials in Hawaii on March 20 ordered some 4,000 people living near an aging dam on the island of Oahu to evacuate the area immediately, following severe rains that have battered the region. The century-old Wahiawa dam, located in the north of Hawaii's third largest island, which is home to the state capital Honolulu, The remains of a house pushes against a bridge in Waialua on northern Oahu. Officials in Hawaii on March 20 ordered some 4,000 people living near an aging dam on the island of Oahu to evacuate the area immediately, following severe rains that have battered the region. The century-old Wahiawa dam, located in the north of Hawaii's third largest island, which is home to the state capital Honolulu, Floodwater surrounds houses in Waialua on northern Oahu. Officials in Hawaii on March 20 ordered some 4,000 people living near an aging dam on the island of Oahu to evacuate the area immediately, following severe rains that have battered the region. The century-old Wahiawa dam, located in the north of Hawaii's third largest island, which is home to the state capital Honolulu, Residents stand on a tractor as they are evacuated in Waialua on northern Oahu. Officials in Hawaii on March 20 ordered some 4,000 people living near an aging dam on the island of Oahu to evacuate the area immediately, following severe rains that have battered the region. The century-old Wahiawa dam, located in the north of Hawaii's third largest island, which is home to the state capital Honolulu, People stand with rescue boards in floodwater near a truck as evacuation efforts take place on the island of Oahu. Officials in Hawaii on March 20 ordered some 4,000 people living near an aging dam on the island of Oahu to evacuate the area immediately, following severe rains that have battered the region. The century-old Wahiawa dam, located in the north of Hawaii's third largest island, which is home to the state capital Honolulu, A person stands on a roof surrounded by floodwater as evacuation efforts take place on the island of Oahu. Officials in Hawaii on March 20 ordered some 4,000 people living near an aging dam on the island of Oahu to evacuate the area immediately, following severe rains that have battered the region. The century-old Wahiawa dam, located in the north of Hawaii's third largest island, which is home to the state capital Honolulu, Residents are rescued as evacuation efforts take place on the island of Oahu. Officials in Hawaii on March 20 ordered some 4,000 people living near an aging dam on the island of Oahu to evacuate the area immediately, following severe rains that have battered the region. The century-old Wahiawa dam, located in the north of Hawaii's third largest island, which is home to the state capital Honolulu, A truck on a road near buildings is surrounded by floodwater as evacuation efforts take place on the island of Oahu. Officials in Hawaii on March 20 ordered some 4,000 people living near an aging dam on the island of Oahu to evacuate the area immediately, following severe rains that have battered the region. The century-old Wahiawa dam, located in the north of Hawaii's third largest island, which is home to the state capital Honolulu, People wearing reflective vests walking in floodwater as evacuation efforts take place on the island of Oahu. Officials in Hawaii on March 20 ordered some 4,000 people living near an aging dam on the island of Oahu to evacuate the area immediately, following severe rains that have battered the region. The century-old Wahiawa dam, located in the north of Hawaii's third largest island, which is home to the state capital Honolulu,

See floodwaters overwhelm communities across Hawaii

A flooded neighborhood in Waialua on the north shore ofOahu, Hawaiiis seen during a crew flyover with a MH-65 Dolphin helicopter assigned to Coast Guard Air Station Barbers Point in Kapolei, on March 20, 2026. Officials in Hawaii on March 20 ordered some 4,000 people living near an aging dam on the island of Oahu to evacuate the area immediately, following severe rains that have battered the region. The century-old Wahiawa dam, located in the north of Hawaii's third largest island, which is home to the state capital Honolulu, "is at imminent risk of failure," the local emergency management agency warned.

Unprecedented heat wave

Apersistent high-pressure systemfueled a lack of precipitation in the West and enduring triple-digit temperatures. By March 19, weather data shows monthly all-time high record temperatures were broken in at least 11 states where the data goes back at least 70 years.

Reds and oranges on this map from NASA's Earth Observatory illustrate air temperatures on the afternoon of March 20 at a height of 6.5 feet above ground. The darkest reds show where an earth observation model indicated temperatures reaching or exceeding 104 degrees.

"It was just really an extraordinary event, for several reasons," including the magnitude and duration of the heat, McEvoy said. "Previous records for statewide monthly record are being broken by 4, 5 and 6 degrees, which is really a huge jump in magnitude," McEvoy said. "The magnitude of the heat wave was more like early summer."

The high temperature in Yuma, Arizona on March 20 reached 109 degrees, 28 degrees above its 30-year normal.

Among the March records in the U.S., 492 locations broke a previous monthly high, and at least 300 broke records for their warmest monthly overnight low. More than a thousand other records were set for daily maximum temperatures or warm overnight lows.

This illustration from the Western Regional Climate Center shows the extreme difference in March precipitation between the Southwest and the Northwest.

Weather whiplash and climate change

The same pattern that created the rain over Hawaii, and atmospheric rivers in the Pacific Northwest also brought high winds and snowstorms and a variety of extremesto the eastern half of the United States during the month. A powerful storm March 14 - 16 canceled flights, prompted states of emergency and brought the first blizzard warnings in 15 years to Milwaukee.

Several scientists this week pointed to these extremes and the whiplash between extremes as potential evidence of the warming climate.

Unusual heat waves like the one in the West have been discussed in climate change literature, with forecasts that they'll increase in severity and duration, McEvoy said.

Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, is among the scientists pointing to intense heat waves in the Pacific Ocean and the likelihood they're influencing the jet stream and the persistent warm pattern over the western U.S.

"They're dominating the influence on the jet stream and anchoring these patterns in place that create these very persistent weather conditions," Francis said in a webinar this week.

Scientists with World Weather Attribution, an organization working to understand how climate change is affecting weather events, conducteda rapid analysis of the rare western heat waveand found it would be "virtually impossible" without human-caused climate change. In just a decade, such an event has become about four times more likely due to climate change, the analysis concluded.

The wild swings in temperatures can be unsettling for people, Francis and others said, and also reflect the realities of a warming climate. For example, the reactions to thecold in the Northeastsuggest people have become so used to milder winters that when temperatures plunge back to those more typical decades ago, they seem even more severe.

Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, covers climate change, weather, the environment and other news. Reach her at dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Did climate change feed March's wild weather?

 

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