For most of the Patrick Mahomes era, when theKansas City Chiefsabsolutely needed a big play, it would happen to the surprise of nobody. Making every clutch play became Kansas City's brand during its dynasty.
This season, when the Chiefs have absolutely needed a big play like they did in a practically must-win game Sunday night, they couldn't find the right answer.
The magic that carried the Chiefs for such a long stretch last season has evaporated. Two failed fourth-down tries by the Chiefs in their own territory in the fourth quarter and then an interception on a pass that was bobbled byTravis Kelcedoomed them in a20-10 loss to the Houston Texans. The Chiefs aren't done in theplayoff raceyet. But they're all the way to the edge of a steep cliff.
"I thought it was an opportunity. I was wrong, though. In hindsight, it was wrong,"Chiefs head coach Andy Reid admitted postgameabout those fourth-down gambles. "We've been pretty good on fourth downs. I messed that one up."
Even if the Chiefs win out, they'd need to catch a break or two to make the playoffs after a loss to the Texans dropped them to 6-7 this season. With a Denver Broncos win on Sunday and the Chiefs' defeat, Kansas City's streak of nine straight AFC West titles is officially over. The Chiefs are eliminated in the AFC West race, and barely alive in the wild-card race.
The Chiefs had trouble moving the ball against the Texans' fierce defense and are a step closer to elimination from the postseason field. Before Sunday night's game,The Athletic's projectionhad their playoff chances dropping to 16% with a loss to the Texans.NFL.comhad it at 15%. Kansas City is in trouble.
The Chiefs struggled in the first half, got hot in the third quarter but then the two failed fourth-down tries wrecked their momentum. The Texans broke a 10-10 tie on a Dare Ogunbowale touchdown run, but Kansas City had a chance late to at least tie the game.
A pass to Kelce popped out of his hands and it was picked off by Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair.
The Chiefs are used to seeing their opponents melt down like that in key situations. Now it's happening to them. And it has put them on the brink of missing the playoffs.
Chiefs struggle early against Texans' D
The Texans came in with the best and hottest defense in the NFL, and it looked great in the first half.
The Chiefs struggled to move the ball, andlosing starting left tackle Wanya Morris to a knee injuryon the first play from scrimmage didn't help against Houston's pass rush. The closest Kansas City got to a score in the first half was a field goal that clanged off the upright and was no good. The Texans led 10-0 at halftime.
C.J. Stroud was good in the first half, with 171 yards and a touchdown pass to running back Woody Marks. Houston more than doubled Kansas City's yardage in the first half, outgaining the Chiefs 201-98.
The way the first half played out, it seemed like the Texans might run away with a win. It was stunning to see the Chiefs stuck on no points at halftime in a game that they needed to win to avoid falling under .500 this late in the season.
But the Chiefs are a really well-coached team and adjustments on each side of the ball got them back in the game.
Chiefs rebound in 2nd half
The Chiefs finally scored early in the second half. Kareem Hunt had an exceptional effort on a fourth-and-1 run, getting 2 hard yards for the touchdown. Even though Houston completely outplayed Kansas City in the first half, the Chiefs trailed just 10-7 after that drive in the first few minutes of the second half.
The Chiefs dominated the third quarter. They had 132 yards to -2 for the Texans. Stroud didn't complete a pass for the entire period. After three quarters the score was 10-10 in a game with numerous hard hits.
#Texanssafety Jalen Pitre just LIT UP Rashee Rice:pic.twitter.com/QOVk1hjZZj
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulliNFL)December 8, 2025
A fourth-down decision early in the fourth quarter was aggressive and costly for the Chiefs. On fourth-and-1 at their own 31-yard line, with a little more than 10 minutes left, Kansas City went for it. A pass to Rashee Rice was batted down and Houston took over, already in field-goal range in a tie game. On the Texans' next drive Ogunbowale, who had just three carries on the season and was in due to Nick Chubb and Woody Marks being injured, scored a 5-yard touchdown run on his first offensive snap of the game. Houston led 17-10 and Kansas City might have regretted going for it so deep in their own territory.
That meant the Chiefs needed a clutch drive for a touchdown. Usually that hasn't been a problem in the Mahomes era. This season, the Chiefs have had plenty of problems making big plays in close games. The Chiefs went for it again, on fourth-and-4, and Rice dropped it. That wasn't as damaging because the Chiefs' defense forced a three-and-out. But then Mahomes' pass to Kelce was dropped and intercepted, allowing the Texans to ice the game.
"I'll never question that. I'm going to go to those guys in big moments," Mahomes said of Rice and Kelce. "Those guys have played in Super Bowls, they've made plays in AFC championship games, and so obviously it didn't go our way today. I have a lot to do with that myself."
It's not unheard of for a team to miss the playoffs in the middle of a dynasty. The 1982 San Francisco 49ers went 3-6 in a strike-shortened season, a year after winning their first of four Super Bowls that decade. The New England Patriots missed the playoffs in 2008, though that was because Tom Brady missed almost the entire season with a torn ACL. It's possible to miss the playoffs and not have the dynasty end.
But before thinking about what's next, it's probably time to make sense of the story of this NFL season: The Chiefs are very likely to miss the playoffs. That seemed unfathomable before the season started.
